CC Image courtesy of Alex Guibord: https://bit.ly/2DJiwr9
Of those that understand the SNC situation, more than half say it will impact their vote
Toronto, May 1st – In a random sampling of
public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1595 Canadian
voters, just over half of voters (TOP2: 52%),
down 7 points since March (March 1: (TOP2) 59%), say the SNC-Lavalin situation
will have an impact on their vote in the upcoming federal election, with nearly
a third (31%), down five points since March (March 1: 36%) saying it will have
a strong impact.
More than three quarters (TOP2: 77%) of
Conservative voters say it will impact their vote.
It will likewise affect the vote of Green (TOP2:
60%) and NDP (TOP2: 55%) supporters.
About half (BTM2: 48%) say it won’t impact
their vote, with nearly a third (31%) saying it won’t impact their vote at all.
More than 8 in 10 (BTM2: 84%), up 14 points
since March (March 1: (BTM2) 70%) of Liberal voters say it won’t have an impact
on their vote.
those who said it’ll have an impact, half say they are more likely to vote
Half of respondents (49%) who indicated the SNC
situation will impact their vote said they are more likely to vote
Conservative. Respondents most likely to say they are more likely to vote Conservative include those aged 35-54 (53%), males (54%), whose income
is between $80k-$100k (65%), have completed college or university (52%), living
in Alberta (81%), and already saying they will be supporting the Conservatives
One sixth say they are more likely to vote
Liberal (13%) or NDP (14%), 1 in 10 (11%) say they are more likely to vote
Green, 1 in 20 are more likely to vote BQ, (4%), for another party (5%), or are
less likely to vote in general (5%).
Of the Liberal voters that said the SNC
situation will impact their vote, just over half (56%) said they are more
likely to vote Liberal, while 1 in 10 (12%) said they’re more likely to vote
Conservative, NDP (13%), or Green (9%).
say they could explain the situation if asked
Nearly two thirds (TOP2: 65%), up 10 points since
March (March 1: (TOP2) 55%), say they could confidently explain the situation
related to the Prime Minister’s Office. More than a third (35%), up 8 points
since March (March 1: 27%) say they are very confident in explaining the
Those supporting the PPC (TOP2: 86%) are most likely
to say they could confidently explain the situation.
Over a third (BTM2: 35%) say they couldn’t confidently
explain the situation, with nearly a quarter (22%) saying they couldn’t do so
BQ or Green (43%) voters are most likely to say they
couldn’t confidently explain it.
say it’s worsened their opinion of Trudeau
Three quarters (76%), up an astounding 19
points (March 1: 57%), say that the situation has worsened their opinion of
Justin Trudeau, while a fifth (21%), down 15 points (March 1: 36%),said it had
no effect, and less than 1 in 10 (3%), down 4 points (March 1: 7%) said it’s
improved their opinion of the Prime Minister.
Respondents most likely to say their opinion
has worsened include those aged 55- 64 (83%), earning $80k or more (83%), with
a college/university (80%) or post-graduate degree (79%), living in the
prairies (MB/SK) (91%), and supporting the Conservatives (87%) or the NDP
“People have been paying attention to the
situation between the Prime Minister and SNC Lavalin, as two-thirds say they
could explain it, if asked,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum
Research. “The troubling thing for the Liberals is that amongst that group,
three-quarters say SNC has worsened their opinion of the Prime Minister, which
is a lot higher than when we last tested the question.”