Conservatives Lead, But the Gap Is Narrowing
The
Greens hit double digits
Toronto, June 11th – In a random
sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1633 Canadian voters, amongst those decided
and leaning, a third (34%) say they would support the Conservatives if an
election were held today.
3 in 10 (30%) say they would support the
Liberals, and about one-sixth say they would support the NDP (13%) or Greens
(13%).
About 1 in 20 (6%) say they would support the BQ,
while a similar proportion would support the PPC (4%). Few (1%) are supporting
another party.
While support for most of the parties is stable,
the Greens have increased their support by four points since April (April 9th:
9%).
If these results were projected into seats, we
expect a Conservative minority government of 151 seats, with the Liberals
securing 134.
The NDP would win 27, the BQ would win 23, and the Greens would win 3.
Trudeau
sees approval from a third, disapproval from more than half
Justin Trudeau sees approval from a third (34%) and
disapproval from more than half (56%), with about 1 in 10 (10%) saying they don’t
know. His net favourable score is -22 (approve-disapprove).
Scheer
sees disapproval from almost half
A third (33%) say they approve of Andrew Scheer, while
almost half (45%) say they disapprove. One-fifth (22%) say they don’t know.
Scheer’s net favourable score is -12 (approve-disapprove).
Singh’s
disapproval is equal to “don’t know”
A quarter (23%) say they approve of Jagmeet Singh,
while about 4 in 10 (40%) say they disapprove. 4 in 10 (37%) also say that they
don’t know. His net favourable score is -17 (approve-disapprove).
May’s
approval the highest
Just over 4 in 10 (44%) say they approve of Elizabeth
May, while a quarter (22%) say they disapprove. A third (33%) say they do not
know. Her net favourable score is +22, the only score in the positives (approve-disapprove).
“Support for the Federal parties
is mostly unchanged, but the landscape has shifted considerably,” said Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “A few percentage points have made
a big difference in the projection of the future government. The highlight of
this report is the strength of the Federal Green party; with a provincial Green
Party propping up an NDP government in BC, and other provincial Greens making
significant gains in Atlantic Canada, the Federal Greens could have a real
influence on the 2019 election, if their support continues to rise.”
