Federal
Conservatives and Liberals TiedSingh
sees big bump in favourability, Scheer, a little one
Toronto, September 21st – In a random sampling
of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 2449 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and
leaning, a third (33%) say they would support the Conservatives if the election
were held today, while a similar proportion (33%) say they support the
Liberals.
1 in 10 (11%) say they would support the Greens,
while a similar proportion (11%) say they would support the NDP.
About 1 in 20 (6%) say they would support the
BQ, while a similar proportion would support the PPC (5%). Few (2%) are
supporting another party.
If these results were projected into seats, we
expect a minority parliament with the Liberals holding 147 seats and with the
Conservatives holding 144.
The NDP would win 20, the BQ would win 22, and
the Green would win 5.
Trudeau
sees approval from more than a third, disapproval from more than half
Justin Trudeau sees
approval from more than a third (37%) and disapproval from more than half (54%),
with about 1 in 10 (9%) saying they don’t know. His net favourable score is -17
(approve-disapprove).
Scheer
sees approval from a quarter, and disapproval from half
A third (31%) say
they approve of Andrew Scheer, up slightly from a quarter (July 20: 2019 27%).
Half (50%) say they
disapprove. One-fifth (19%) say they don’t know. Scheer’s net favourable score
is -18 (approve-disapprove).
Singh’s
approval is at a third, up considerably
A third (36%) say
they approve of Jagmeet Singh, up from a quarter (July 30: 2019, 24%), while a
similar proportion (34%) say they disapprove.
A third (30%) also
say they don't know. Singh's net favourable score is a much improved +2, (July
30: -15) (approve-disapprove).
May’s
approval remains strong
More than 4 in 10 (44%)
say they approve of Elizabeth May, while a third (30%) say they disapprove. A
quarter (27%) say they do not know. Her net favourable score is +14. (approve-disapprove).
Trudeau
and Scheer tied for best PM
A third (31%) say
Justin Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister, while a similar proportion
(29%) say that Andrew Scheer would.
Both Jagmeet Singh
(12%) and Elizabeth May (11%) are seen as best PM by 1 in 10. One-fifth (17%)
say they don't know who would make the best PM.
Canadians
divided on whether Canada is better or worse
Half
(TOP2: 49%) say Canada is doing better than four years ago, with one-sixth (16%)
saying it's much better.
Half
(BTM2: 51%) say it's doing worse, with a third (31%) saying it's doing much
worse.
Environment
and Economy remain the top issues
Half
of the country says that their most important election issue is either the
environment (27%) or the economy (25%).
Healthcare
(14%) has been the third most important issue consistently.
|
%
|
Feb 27 - 28, 2019
|
April 3 - 6, 2019
|
June 28 - 30, 2019
|
July 26- 28, 2019
|
Sept 11, 2019
|
Sept 19-21, 2019
|
|
Sample
|
1301
|
1634
|
1812
|
1733
|
1001
|
1836
|
|
Environment
|
15
|
21
|
26
|
26
|
22.8
|
27
|
|
Economy
|
26
|
28
|
25
|
25
|
22.8
|
25
|
|
Healthcare
|
17
|
13
|
16
|
14
|
15
|
14
|
|
Taxes
|
12
|
12
|
8
|
8
|
10.5
|
10
|
|
Immigration
|
10
|
5
|
8
|
8
|
8.4
|
6
|
|
Education
|
8
|
7
|
6
|
7
|
7.7
|
6
|
|
Housing
|
4
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
3.9
|
5
|
|
Public Safety
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
3.2
|
3
|
|
Something else
|
6
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
5.7
|
5
|
“Despite
their proliferation in the media, the pictures of the Prime Minister haven't severely
impacted the Liberals yet,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum
Research. “Of course that could change with four weeks of campaigning left to go,
however. What should concern the Liberal campaign is the considerable improvement
in the approval numbers of Jagmeet Singh. The Liberals are the primary beneficiaries
of a weak NDP, and if Singh's approval continues to rise, we can expect to see NDP
support rise with it."
