Federal
Conservatives and Liberals Tied
But
seat math favours the Liberals
Toronto, October 2nd – In a random sampling of
public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1853 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and
leaning, a third (31%) say they would support the Conservatives if the election
were held today, while a similar proportion (34%) say they support the
Liberals.
1 in 10 (12%) say they would support the Greens,
while a similar proportion (12%) say they would support the NDP.
About 1 in 20 (6%) say they would support the
BQ, while a similar proportion would support the PPC (4%). Few (2%) are
supporting another party.
If these results were projected into seats, we
expect a minority parliament with the Liberals holding 168 seats and with the
Conservatives holding 130.
The NDP would win 21, the BQ would win 15, and
the Green would win 4.
Trudeau
sees approval from more than a third, disapproval from more than half
Justin
Trudeau sees approval from more than a third (36%) and disapproval from more
than half (55%), with about 1 in 10 (9%) saying they don’t know. His net
favourable score is -19 (approve-disapprove).
Scheer sees approval from a third, and disapproval
from half
A third (30%) say they approve of Andrew Scheer.
Half (52%) say they disapprove. One-fifth (18%)
say they don’t know. Scheer’s net favourable score is -22 (approve-disapprove).
Singh’s approval is at a third, up
considerably
A third (35%) say they approve of Jagmeet Singh,
while a similar proportion (34%) say
they disapprove.
A third (31%) also say they don't know. Singh's net
favourable score is +1 (approve-disapprove).
May’s approval remains strong
More than 4 in 10 (39%) say they approve of
Elizabeth May, down slightly since mid-September (Sept 20: 44%) while a third
(30%) say they disapprove. A third(30%) say they do not know. Her net
favourable score is +9, down from +14 (September 20). (approve-disapprove).
Trudeau and Scheer tied for best PM
A third (31%) say Justin Trudeau would make the
best Prime Minister, while a similar proportion (29%) say that Andrew Scheer
would.
Both Jagmeet Singh (13%) and Elizabeth May (9%)
are seen as best PM by 1 in 10. One-fifth (18%) say they don't know who would
make the best PM.
Canadians divided on whether Canada is
better or worse
Half (TOP2: 50%) say Canada is doing better than four
years ago, with one-sixth (16%) saying it's much better.
Half (BTM2: 50%) say it's doing worse, with a third (31%)
saying it's doing much worse.
Environment and climate change the top
issue
The environment and climate change is the top issue in the
current Federal election, with a third (32%) saying it's most important to
them. One-fifth (21%) say it's the economy, while a sixth (14%) say it's
healthcare, including pharmacare.
|
%
|
Sept 30-Oct 1
|
|
Sample
|
1853
|
|
Environment and climate change
|
32
|
|
Economy and jobs
|
21
|
|
Healthcare including pharmacare
|
14
|
|
Taxes
|
9
|
|
Education
|
7
|
|
Immigration
|
5
|
|
Public Safety and gun violence
|
3
|
|
Housing
|
3
|
|
Something else
|
5
|
“The race continues
to be even, with the Liberals and the Conservatives tied in percentage of voter
support,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “The seat math,
however, currently favours the Liberals, and suggests a minority. The
environment and climate change tops the list of election issues, with more than
a third saying it's the most important one to them in this campaign."
