Federal Conservatives and Liberals Tied

| Filed under: National, Nova Scotia


Federal Conservatives and Liberals Tied

But seat math favours the Liberals

 

Toronto, October 2nd – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Pollamong 1853 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, a third (31%) say they would support the Conservatives if the election were held today, while a similar proportion (34%) say they support the Liberals.

 

1 in 10 (12%) say they would support the Greens, while a similar proportion (12%) say they would support the NDP.

 

About 1 in 20 (6%) say they would support the BQ, while a similar proportion would support the PPC (4%). Few (2%) are supporting another party.

 

If these results were projected into seats, we expect a minority parliament with the Liberals holding 168 seats and with the Conservatives holding 130.

 

The NDP would win 21, the BQ would win 15, and the Green would win 4.

 

Trudeau sees approval from more than a third, disapproval from more than half

 

Justin Trudeau sees approval from more than a third (36%) and disapproval from more than half (55%), with about 1 in 10 (9%) saying they don’t know. His net favourable score is -19 (approve-disapprove).

 

Scheer sees approval from a third, and disapproval from half

 

A third (30%) say they approve of Andrew Scheer.

 

Half (52%) say they disapprove. One-fifth (18%) say they don’t know. Scheer’s net favourable score is -22 (approve-disapprove).

 

Singh’s approval is at a third, up considerably

 

A third (35%) say they approve of Jagmeet Singh,  while a similar proportion (34%) say they disapprove.

 

A third (31%) also say they don't know. Singh's net favourable score is +1 (approve-disapprove).

 

May’s approval remains strong

 

More than 4 in 10 (39%) say they approve of Elizabeth May, down slightly since mid-September (Sept 20: 44%) while a third (30%) say they disapprove. A third(30%) say they do not know. Her net favourable score is +9, down from +14 (September 20). (approve-disapprove).

 

Trudeau and Scheer tied for best PM

 

A third (31%) say Justin Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister, while a similar proportion (29%) say that Andrew Scheer would.

 

Both Jagmeet Singh (13%) and Elizabeth May (9%) are seen as best PM by 1 in 10. One-fifth (18%) say they don't know who would make the best PM.

 

Canadians divided on whether Canada is better or worse

 

Half (TOP2: 50%) say Canada is doing better than four years ago, with one-sixth (16%) saying it's much better.

Half (BTM2: 50%) say it's doing worse, with a third (31%) saying it's doing much worse.


 

Environment and climate change the top issue

 

The environment and climate change is the top issue in the current Federal election, with a third (32%) saying it's most important to them. One-fifth (21%) say it's the economy, while a sixth (14%) say it's healthcare, including pharmacare.

 

%

Sept 30-Oct 1

Sample

1853

Environment and climate change

32

Economy and jobs

21

Healthcare including pharmacare

14

Taxes

9

Education

7

Immigration

5

Public Safety and gun violence

3

Housing

3

Something else

5

 

 

“The race continues to be even, with the Liberals and the Conservatives tied in percentage of voter support,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “The seat math, however, currently favours the Liberals, and suggests a minority. The environment and climate change tops the list of election issues, with more than a third saying it's the most important one to them in this campaign."