NDP
consolidates hold on first place
Nearing majority, with stronghold in BC
TORONTO June 23rd,
2015 - In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1268 Canadian
voters, well more than a third will vote NDP if a federal election were held
today (36%), while just more than a quarter would vote either Liberal or
Conservative (28% each). This represents a slight increase for the NDP since
last week (June 16 - 34%) and relative stability for the other two parties. The
Green Party is reduced to very few votes (2%), as is the Bloc Quebecois (5%) or
other parties (1%).
The
NDP vote is common to the youngest (41%), mid income groups ($60K to $80K -
41%), in the prairies (40%) and, especially, in BC (54%) and among those with a
degree (43%) or higher (41%),
The
Liberal vote is characteristic of the wealthier ($80K to $100K - 31%), the
Atlantic provinces (41%), Ontario (32%) and the best educated (31%).
The
Conservative vote is higher among the oldest males (32% each), the less wealthy
($20K to $40K - 32%), in the prairies (34%) and Alberta (41%), those with kids
(32%) and those with some college (36%).
In
Ontario, the three parties are tightly tied (Conservative - 32%, Liberal - 32%,
NDP- 33%), in Quebec, the NDP has a clear lead (NDP - 36%, Liberal - 25%, Bloc
- 20%, Conservative - 17%). In Alberta, while the Conservatives have a solid
lead still (41%) the Liberals (27%) and the NDP (28%) are closing in for second
place. In BC, the NDP dominates (NDP - 54%, Conservatives - 21%, Liberals -
20%). In Atlantic Canada, while the Liberals still lead (41%), the
Conservatives are close in second place (32%), followed, distantly, by the NDP
(24%).
Of
note, close to 3-in-10 past Liberal voters (2011) will vote NDP this time
around (29%) and this is a reversal of the pattern we have seen for the past
two years, where about 3-in-10 past NDP voters would switch to the Liberals.
NDP Minority seen
If
these results are projected up to a 338 seat House of Commons, the NDP would
take 149, 21 short of a majority, but up 20 since last week, while the
Conservatives would take 116 and the Liberals would be limited to 65 seats. The
Bloquistes would take 3 seats and the Green Party would keep their leader’s seat.
Conservative Party is second choice of few
One
half of Liberal supporters pick the NDP as their second choice (48%), and a
similar proportion of NDP voters say the Liberals are their second choice
(43%). Close to one fifth of Liberals pick the Conservatives second (17%),
while about one tenth of New Democrats do (10%). One quarter of Conservatives
pick the Liberals second (25%), and just fewer pick the NDP (19%). Of note, the
Green Party is the second choice of a significant minority of Liberals (16%)
and New Democrats (23%).
In
total, the NDP have a ceiling of 58% of the vote (first plus second choice),
the Liberals have a ceiling of 51%, and the Conservatives, just 37%.
Leader favourables stable; Mulcair on top
Stephen
Harper has the approval of 3-in-10 voters (30%) and his net favourable score
(approve minus disapprove) is a very negative but stable-31. Tom Mulcair
continues to enjoy the approval of one half of voters (50%) and his net is a
very positive +25. Justin Trudeau has the approval of about 4-in10 (38%) and
his net is a neutral -3.
NDP, Conservatives tied in expectation of victory
Roughly
equal proportions anticipate a Conservative (29%) or an NDP (27%) victory. Just
fewer expect a Liberal victory (25%). Conservatives are more certain of their
party’s victory (80%) than are Liberals (64%) or New Democrats (61%).
"The movement in the NDP’s
favour is slow, but it’s gathering momentum. They’re firmly in first in Quebec
and BC and at parity in Ontario, which are three of the four biggest provinces.
There is very little downside to the NDP voter profile, and Mulcair is more
popular than his party, while Trudeau and Harper trade at about their parties’
favourability. Even in the expectation of victory, which tends to be a lagging
measure, we see the NDP have caught up to the Conservatives," said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
