Federal NDP
leads by 7 points
Conservatives fall back, tied with Liberals
TORONTO July 14th,
2015 - In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1251 Canadian
voters, more than one third will vote for the New Democrats if the federal
election were held today (34%), while just more than one quarter would vote for
either the Conservatives or the Liberals (27% each). This 7 point lead stands
in comparison to last week, when the NDP and the Conservatives were tied (July
8 - 32% each) while a quarter would vote Liberal (26%). In other words, after
briefly flirting with parity with the NDP, the Conservatives have dropped back
to a tie for second place with the Liberals. One twentieth will vote Green
(5%), and slightly more will vote Bloc Quebecois (7%), but very few will vote
for any other party (1%).
In
Ontario, where elections are won, the Liberals have a slight lead (34%) over
the Conservatives (31%) and the NDP (30%). In Quebec, the NDP is firmly in the
lead (34%) while the Bloc (25%) and the Liberals (22%) strive for second place.
In Atlantic Canada, formerly the Liberal stronghold, The NDP (47%) are now
dominant, and the Liberals trail (30%). The Conservatives dominate in Alberta
(47%) but the NDP is second (29%). In the prairies, the Liberals (39%) and Conservatives
(40%) are tied (caution: small base size). The NDP dominates BC (46%), while
the Conservatives 24%) and Liberals (20%) duel for second.
Of
note, 3-in-10 past Liberal voters will vote NDP this time around (29%), as will
about half this proportion of past Conservative voters (14%). About one sixth
of past Conservatives will vote Liberal this time (15%) as will the same
proportion of past New Democrats (16%). The NDP retain the largest share of
their past vote (72%), followed by the Conservatives (68%) then the Liberals
(60%). Very few voters switch to the Conservatives.
NDP minority in the cards
If
these results are projected up to a 338 seat House of Commons, the NDP would
capture a healthy minority of 132 seats, 38 short of a majority. The Conservatives
would take 107 seats, the Liberals 79, the Bloquistes would claim a four month
high of 19 seats and the Green Party would keep their single seat.
Harper’s favourables down sharply, others steady
The
Prime Minister has the approval of just more than one quarter of voters (27%),
down sharply from last week (July 8 - 35%), and his net favourable score
(approve minus disapprove) is a very negative -35, well down from -24 last
week. Tom Mulcair continues to have the approval of just less than half the
voters (47%) and his net is a very favourable +23. This is steady since last
week, when his approval was 48% and his net +24. Justin Trudeau has also seen
his approval stay stable at 38% with a neutral net of -3 (June 8 - 41% and 0).
NDP now expected to win the election
Voters
now put the NDP in the lead (for the first time) as the party they expect to
win the election (28%), with the Conservatives (27%) and Liberals (24%) close
behind.
Mulcair clearly seen as the best PM of the bunch
Tom
Mulcair leads the best Prime Minister measure decisively (31%), and Harper and
Trudeau are tied for second (22% and 21%, respectively). One tenth think none
of the candidates can do the job (10%) and few select Elizabeth May (5%) or
Gilles Duceppe (4%). One fifth of Liberal voters think Mulcair would make the
best PM (21%).
"It appears the bump in
popularity the Prime Minister enjoyed last week was short-lived, and we’ve now
arrived where this trend was apparently going anyway, with the NDP in sole
possession of first place. However, when the electorate is as volatile as
Canadians appear to be now, polling can become an exercise in looking over your
shoulder, and events change before you finish measuring them," said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
