Parliament Hill by Robert Lindsell is released under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Licence.
Federal NDP maintain solid lead
Headed for slim minority
TORONTO August 10th, 2015- In a random sampling
of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1392 Canadian voters, just
more than one third will vote NDP in the coming federal election (34%), while
just more than a quarter will vote Conservative (28%) or Liberal (27%). Few
will vote Green (4%) or Bloc Quebecois (6%) or for anyone else (1%).
NDP slips slightly, Liberals
These findings stand in contrast to last week, immediately
after the election was called, when as many as 4-in-10 were prepared to vote
NDP (39%) and just one quarter were voting Liberal (25%). The Conservative vote
has not changed since then (August 2 - 28%).
NDP lead in BC, Quebec, tied
The three main parties are at parity in battleground Ontario
(NDP - 33%, Conservatives and Liberals - 31% each), while the NDP leads in
Quebec (37%), outstripping the Liberals (22%) and the Bloc (21%). In the
Liberal fortress of Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead (41%), while the NDP
(28%) and the Conservatives (25%) are tied, while in the prairies, the
Conservatives lead (43%) and the Liberals (27%) and NDP (26%) are tied for
second. In Alberta, the Conservatives are dominant (44%), and the NDP are a
distant second (32%). In BC, the NDP lead (38%) and the Conservatives (27%) and
Liberals (29%) are tied in second.
Gender gap persists for
While one third of males will vote Conservative (33%), fewer
than a quarter of females will do so (23%). In the case of the Liberals, the
gap goes the other way (24% males, 31% females). The NDP has an even gender
distribution (33% and 34%, respectively). The oldest are especially likely to
vote Liberal (65+ - 34%).
3-in-10 past Liberals will
Three-in-ten voters who picked the Liberals in 2011 will
vote for the NDP this time (30%), while one fifth of past NDP voters will opt
for the Liberals (19%). About one tenth of past Conservatives will vote either
Liberal (12%) or NDP (11%).
New Democrats least committed
While 7-in-10 Conservative voters are strong supporters of
their party (70%), and 6-in-10 Liberals are as well (61%), just more than one
half of New Democrats are strong supporters (54%).
NDP headed for slim minority
If these results are projected up to the new 338 seat House
of Commons, the NDP would take 125 seats to 120 seats for the Conservatives.
The Liberals would capture 89 seats, the Bloc would seat 3 members and the
Greens would retain their single seat.
Conservatives, NDP equally
likely to win – voters
Expectations of victory are tied for the NDP and the
Conservatives (30% each), while the Liberals trail (22%). Conservatives are
most convinced of their party’s eventual victory (81%), while New Democrats
(66%) and Liberals (60%) are less sure. One sixth of Liberals think either the
Conservatives (14%) or NDP (15%) will win, while about 1-in-10 New Democrats
think either the Conservatives (12%) or Liberals (11%) will win.
Mulcair preferred as best PM
Tom Mulcair has a slight as the best Prime Minister (28%),
compared to one quarter for Stephen Harper (25%) and just fewer for Justin
Trudeau (23%); Harper is seen to be best for foreign affairs, security; Mulcair
for environment, both for economy.
Harper best for foreign
affairs, security; Mulcair for environment; both for economy
Stephen Harper is tied with Tom Mulcair (30% to 29%) for who
could handle the economy best, and Justin Trudeau lags slightly (26%). Harper
is clearly preferred for national security (35%) to Mulcair (26%) or Trudeau
(21%), and he is also preferred for foreign affairs (31%), while Mulcair (26%) and
Trudeau are tied (27%). Tom Mulcair is clearly seen to be the best for handling
the environment (36%), trailed by Trudeau (25%) and, distantly, by Harper
appears last week's bump for the NDP wasn’t just giddy exhilaration brought on
by the election call. People have had more than a week to absorb this campaign,
to watch the candidates and fill up on the media, and they’re sticking with the
progressive alternative. Among the signs this isn’t temporary are that Tom
Mulcair is equally likely to be seen as the best steward of the economy as the
Prime Minister, who has always owned that measure himself," said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at email@example.com
or at (416) 960-9603.