Conservatives with huge lead in Macleod
TORONTO, JUNE 19th,
2014 - In
a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among voters in
three of the four federal ridings where by-elections will take place on June
30, the Liberals have strong leads in two, while the Conservatives have an
insurmountable lead in a third.
Trinity-Spadina
Among the 569 voters polled in this riding, more than half
will vote for the Liberal candidate, Adam Vaughan (52%), while one third will
vote for his NDP counterpart, Joe Cressy (34%). These findings are very similar
to those noted last month (May 15 - Vaughan - 54%, Cressy - 31%). The
Conservative vote (Ben Sharma, 12% now, 13% then) and Green vote (2% then and
now) have not changed. The Liberal vote is common to Gen Y (35 to 44 - 60%) and
those in lower income groups ($20K to $40K - 63%). The NDP vote is
characteristic of the youngest (52%), females (39%), mid income groups ($40K to
$60K - 50%). Notably, more than 4-in-10 past New Democrats will vote Liberal
this time (44%) and just more than half will vote their own party again (54%).
Scarborough-Agincourt
Among the 562 voters polled in Scarborough-Agincourt, more
than half will vote for the Liberal standard-bearer, Arnold Chan (52%),
compared to just more than a third who will vote for the Conservative
candidate, Trevor Ellis (36%). These results represent a slight widening in the
lead for the Liberals (May 15 - Chan - 46%, Ellis - 38%). The NDP (8%), Greens
(2%) and other parties (2%) do not contend in this riding. The Liberal vote is
characteristic of Gen X (45 to 54 - 57%) and higher income groups ($80K to
$100K - 67%). The Conservative vote is common to the oldest (41%), females
(40%) and in lower income groups ($20K to $40K - 41%). Of note, more than
4-in-10 past NDP voters (2011) will vote Liberal this time (45%), one fifth
will vote Conservative (19%) and just one third will vote for the NDP again
(34%).
Macleod
Among the 508 voters polled in Macleod, close to two thirds
will vote Conservative, for John Barlow (61%), while just one tenth will vote
either for the Liberal, Dustin Fuller, or the New Democrat, Aileen Burke (11%
each). Just fewer than this will vote Green (9%) or for another party (8%). In
the month since polled last, little has changed (May 15 - Barlow - 62%, Fuller
- 15%). The Conservative vote is typical of the oldest (72%), lower ($20K to
$40K - 74%) and higher income groups ($80K to $100K - 71%). The Conservative
vote is the "stickiest" in that more past partisans will vote
Conservative again (80%) than is the case among Liberals (67%) or New Democrats
(60%).
Fort McMurray-Athabasca
Polling was conducted in this riding but adequate sample for
detailed analysis was not collected.
“These by-elections are proving to be very steady affairs,
and no significant changes have happened in a month. We can expect the Liberals
to pick up Trinity-Spadina from the NDP, drawing on the strength of their
showing in the riding during the provincial election, and they'll hold
Scarborough-Agincourt, it appears. A Conservative win in Macleod is a foregone
conclusion, of course, but Fort McMurray continues to be a puzzle, as it is a
very difficult riding to poll," said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
