Tory voters most motivated
Rob should withdraw from Ward 2 - one
half
TORONTO SEPTEMBER
22nd, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum
Poll™ among 1164 Toronto voters, those who support John Tory are the most
committed to voting in the upcoming municipal election (91% absolutely
certain), compared to Chow supporters (85%) and Doug Ford voters (81%).
One half more likely to vote now Doug is in
One half of Toronto voters say they are more likely to vote
in this election because Doug Ford has joined the race (48%), while very few
say they are less motivated to vote (3%). One half say Doug's candidacy makes
no difference to their intention to vote (48%). Doug's supporters are most
likely to say they are more committed to voting now (67%), followed by Tory
supporters (47%) then Chow voters (27%).
Majority want Rob Ford to resign, one half to withdraw from Ward
2 race
Just more than one half think Rob Ford should resign as
mayor (54%), but just fewer think he should withdraw from the Ward 2
councilor’s race (50%). Four-in-ten disagree with the former (39%) and the
latter (43%).
Voters equally likely to prefer both Doug and Rob for mayor
One quarters say they would prefer Rob Ford as mayor (26%)
and a similar proportion opt for his brother Doug (24%). About one tenth say
either one would do (12%), while 4-in-10 want nothing to do with either brother
(38%). Doug Ford supporters are much more likely to prefer Rob (46%) than Doug
(34%) for mayor.
Tory preferred to Chow and Ford in a 1-on-1; Chow beats Ford
In three scenarios where just two candidates compete, John
Tory has the advantage, winning both a 1-on-1 against Doug Ford (57% to 35%)
and against Chow (49% to 35%). In the remaining 1-on-1 race, Olivia Chow
defeats Doug Ford (50% to 41%).
One quarter would pay up to $1 a day to build
transit/infrastructure
Close to one quarter of Toronto voters will spend up to $1 a
day or more extra to see the various transit and infrastructure promises made
by candidates for mayor built (23%), and more than a third would pay up to 50
cents or more (36%). On average, including the one third who say they will pay
nothing (32%), the average amount Toronto voters say they would spend is 17
cents a day.
Accessible transit, repairing sewer/water infrastructure key
non-transit issues
When voters are presented with a list of issues not
including building transit, the one that rises to the top of concern is making
transit more accessible (26%), followed by repairing sewer/water systems now
(19%) and dealing more effectively with the mentally ill on our streets (10%).
There is less concern about controlling the police budget (8%), term limits at
city hall (7%), tolling highways (6%), moving marathons and parades off major
thoroughfares (5%) or ensuring payback from the Pan Am Games (2%). Among Doug
Ford's supporters, accessible transit (15%), repairing sewers and water systems
(18%), controlling the police budget (15%) and dealing with the mentally ill
(12%) are important. Tory supporters are concerned with accessible transit
(30%) and repairing infrastructure (22%) most, while Chow voters are concerned
with accessible transit (36%), the mentally ill (18%) and aging infrastructure
(15%). Among the very small sample of Ari Goldkind supporters, aging
infrastructure repairs are key.
"Doug may not be
quite as well-liked by Ford Nation as his more cuddly brother, but his Hail
Mary entry into the race has certainly galvanized its citizens, and they're
eager to vote for their new champion. The challenge will be for them to
overcome the strong motivation that is also driving John Tory's supporters," said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder
of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
