In Toronto Ward races, most incumbents rule
Tory has lead for mayor in most wards
TORONTO October
23rd, 2014 - In a series of samplings of public opinion across most of
Toronto's wards taken by the Forum Poll™ in the days leading up to the
municipal election among voters in each ward, it appears incumbents have the
upper hand where they are running. Findings are reported below on a
ward-by-ward basis. Note that some sample sizes for wards are small, and
analysis of sub-groups calls for caution.
Ward 1, Etobicoke North - Ford, Crisanti lead
Among the 139 voters polled in Ward 1, incumbent Vincent
Crisanti has the lead for councillor (51%) and no other candidate of the 12
listed gets even double digits. One fifth are undecided (19%). Doug Ford has a
clear advantage in this ward (65%), compared to John Tory (22%) and,
especially, Olivia Chow (6%).
Ward 2, Etobicoke North - Ford and Ford Forever
Mayor Rob Ford has the lead for councillor among the 216
voters polled in this ward (45%), and is only challenged, in equal measure, by
Andray Domise (15%) and Munira Abukar (14%). Luke LaRocque takes one tenth
(9%). Doug Ford has the lead for mayor (42%), with twice the share of John Tory
(22%) and Olivia Chow (19%).
Ward 3, Etobicoke Centre - Tory leads for mayor
Among the 268 voters polled in this ward, which has no
incumbent, Stephen Holyday has a slight lead of just less than a quarter (23%)
to about a fifth for Annette Hutcheon (18%). Dean French and Greg Comeau get
about one tenth share each (12% and 10%, respectively). For mayor, John Tory
leads with half the vote (47%) to about a third for Doug Ford (33%) and about
one tenth for Chow (12%).
Ward 4, Etobicoke Centre - Ford and Tory tied, Christenson leads
Among the 174 voters surveyed in this open ward, Neils
Christenson wins the largest share (26%), followed in relatively equal measure
by John Campbell (17%), Angelo Carnevale and Chris Stockwell (15% each). As
many as a quarter are undecided (23%). In the mayoral race, Ford and Tory are
exactly tied at just less than half (44% each), while few will vote Chow (8%).
Ward 5, Etobicoke Lakeshore - Tory, Di Ciano lead
More than half the 164 voters polled in this open ward will
vote for Justin Di Ciano (54%), and no one else claims double digits, although
Kinga Surma takes a tenth share (9%). John Tory is strongly preferred for mayor
(62%) to Doug Ford (14%) or Olivia Chow (13%). Just one tenth are undecided
(10%).
Ward 6, Etobicoke Lakeshore - Grimes, Russ Ford tied, Tory leads
for mayor
Russ Ford (35%) and incumbent Mark Grimes (30%) are
essentially tied in this ward among the 147 polled. No one else posts as much
as a twentieth share. John Tory is preferred for mayor (44%) to Doug Ford (30%)
and Olivia Chow (21%).
Ward 7, York West - Ford for mayor, Mammolitti with slight lead
Incumbent Girogio Mammolitti is slightly in the lead in this
ward (33%) compared to his only real challenger, Nick Di Nizio (25%). Fully one
quarter are still undecided (25%). Doug Ford has a strong lead for mayor in
this ward (66%) compared to Tory (15%) or Chow (10%). Very few are undecided
(4%).
Ward 8, York West - Ford for mayor, Perruzza leads
The plurality of the 146 voters polled in this ward will
vote the incumbent, Anthony Perruzza (43%), compared to his only real
challenger, Arthur Smitherman (12%). More than a third remain undecided (36%).
Doug Ford is strongly preferred for mayor in this ward (54%), followed by Chow
(24%) and Tory (10%).
Ward 9, York Centre - Augimeri, Cusimano struggle, Ford leads
Incumbent Maria Augimeri has a small lead over Gus Cusimano
(32% to 24%) among the 199 voters polled here. Anthony Fernando is also
considered (16%). One fifth are undecided (20%). Half the voters in this ward
will vote Ford for mayor (51%) while relatively few will vote Tory (19%) or
Chow (17%). Relatively few are undecided (9%).
Ward 10, York Centre - Pasternak leads, Tory, Ford tied
Incumbent James Pasternak is the favourite among the 396
voters polled in this ward (38%), followed by Igor Toutchinski (14%). One third
are undecided (34%). For mayor, Tory and Ford are exactly tied at more than a
third (37% each) while Olivia Chow has about half this share (15%).
Ward 11, York South-Weston - Nunziata rules, Ford for mayor
Incumbent Frances Nunziata has more than half the vote among
the 342 voters polled in this ward (53%), and one third are undecided (35%).
Doug Ford takes half the vote in this ward (53%) to a quarter for John Tory
(23%) and less for Olivia Chow (14%).
Ward 12, York South-Weston - Council race tied up, Ford for
mayor
Among the 284 Toronto voters polled in this ward, there is a
very even split in preference for all four candidates (Frank Di Giorgio - 16%,
Nick Dominelli - 17%, Lekan Olawoye - 15%, John Nunziata - 19%). One third are
undecided (33%). Ford leads the mayoral race with half the vote (53%) to a
quarter for John Tory (23%) and less for Chow (17%).
Ward 13, Parkdale-High Park - Doucette leads, Tory for mayor
Among the 262 voters polled in this ward, incumbent Sarah
Doucette has more than half the vote (54%) and one fifth are undecided (20%).
For mayor, John Tory leads with 4-in-10 votes (42%) followed by Chow with a
third (34%) and Ford with half this proportion (14%).
Ward 14, Parkdale-High Park - Perks leads, mayoral race tied up
Incumbent Gord Perks has the plurality of the votes among
the 326 voters polled in this ward (45%) and is only challenged by Charmain
Emerson (19%). Three-in-ten are undecided (28%). In the mayor's race, all three
candidates are tied (Ford - 28%, Tory - 29%, Chow - 27%). More than a tenth are
undecided (13%).
Ward 15, Eglinton-Lawrence - Colle leads strongly, Ford for
mayor
Incumbent (and scion) Josh Colle has close to half the vote
in this ward (46%) and is challenged only by Chani Arya-Bain (11%) among the
329 voters polled here. In the mayor's race, Doug Ford is favoured (37%) over
John Tory (29%) or, especially, Olivia Chow (16%).
Ward 16, Eglinton-Lawrence - Mixed bet for council, Tory with
strong lead
Among the 227 voters polled in this open ward (once Karen
Stintz's), only two candidates of many break one tenth of the vote (Dyanoosh
Youseffi - 17%, Adam Tanel - 13%). One fifth are undecided (19%). In the
mayoral stakes, John Tory is very heavily favoured (74%), compared to Olivia
Chow (13%) or, especially, Doug Ford (8%).
Ward 17, Davenport - Palacio hangs on, Tory, Chow tied for mayor
Among the 206 voters polled here, incumbent Cesar Palacio
has a very small plurality of the vote (29%), but the remainder of the vote is
relatively evenly split among his three opponents (Alejandra Bravo - 15%, Saeed
Selvam - 12%, George Stevens - 22%). In this ward, Olivia Chow and Doug Ford
are tied for the lead in the mayoral sweepstakes (31% to 35%), while Tory
trails (23%).
Ward 18, Davenport - Chow for mayor, upset for council?
Among the 110 voters polled here (caution, small base size),
the largest plurality prefer Alex Mazer (42%) to incumbent Ana Bailao (33%).
Olivia Chow is slightly preferred for mayor (37%) over Doug Ford (28%) and John
Tory (24%).
Ward 19, Trinity-Spadina - Layton rules, Chow for mayor
Incumbent (and scion) Mike Layton has the dominant two
thirds share among the 284 voters polled in this ward (67%) and about one
quarter are undecided (22%). In the mayor's race, one half favour Olivia Chow
(one of the only wards in which she leads - 50%), while one quarter favour Tory
(24%) and one fifth Ford (19%).
Ward 20, Trinity-Spadina - Cressy rules crowded field, Chow for
mayor
Among the 181 voters polled here, Joe Cressy has 4-in-10
votes (42%) and his only challengers out of a very long list are Sarah Thomson
(12%) and Terri Chu (11%). Few are undecided (6%). One half also prefer Olivia
Chow in this ward (48%) to one third for John Tory (33%) and half this
proportion for Doug Ford (15%).
Ward 21, St Paul's - Mihevc leads, Tory, Chow tied for mayor
Among the 472 voters polled here, incumbent Joe Mihevc has
more than half the vote (59%) and 3-in-10 remain undecided (29%). John Tory and
Olivia Chow are tied at a third in this ward (36% and 35%, respectively), while
Doug Ford trails (18%).
Ward 22, St Paul's - Matlow and Tory rule
Among the 618 voters polled in this ward, incumbent Josh
Matlow has a strong lead (59%) while one third are undecided (33%). For mayor,
John Tory has the biggest lead (62%), compared to Chow (16%) and Ford (9%).
Ward 23, Willowdale – Filion and Tory lead
Incumbent John Filion has the lead among the 488 voters
polled here (40%) and is challenged only by David Mousavi (19%). Three-in-ten
are undecided (29%). In the mayoral race, Tory leads (42%), compared to Ford
(27%) and Chow (18%).
Ward 24, Willowdale - Shiner with small lead, Tory, Ford tied
Among the 432 voters polled here, David Shiner has a small
plurality (30%), and is challenged by Dan Fox (19%). Fully 4-in-10 are
undecided (41%). In the mayoral sweepstakes, John Tory (37%) and Doug Ford
(32%) are essentially tied, with Olivia Chow trailing (19%).
Ward 26, Don Valley West - Burnside upsets Parker, Tory for
mayor
Challenger John Burnside has a lead in this ward (32%),
compared to incumbent John Parker (14%), David Sparrow (14%) or Ishrath Velshi
(12%). For mayor, John Tory leads (40%), compared to Chow (22%) and Ford (24%).
Ward 30, Toronto-Danforth - Fletcher leads, Chow and Tory tied
The 324 voters in this ward have incumbent Paula Fletcher in
first place (39%), but she is strongly challenged by Liz West (24%), though not
so much by Jane Farrow (15%). For mayor, Chow (39%) and Tory (36%) are tied,
while Ford trails 15%).
Ward 39, Scarborough-Agincourt - Karygiannis for council, Tory,
Ford tied
In this open ward, former Liberal MP Jim Karygiannis leads
with a third of the vote (36%) and is challenged only by Franco Ng (16%). Tory
and Ford are essentially tied for mayor (32% and 29%, respectively) while Chow
trails (16%).
“These are small
sample sizes in these polls, but they can teach us a lot; one, that incumbency
is critical, and that in open races, name recognition is just as critical.
Those few councillors facing upsets are those who have not tended their brands
well. Another insight is that the ward generally votes for the mayoral
candidate with whom their incumbent identifies," said Forum Research President, Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
