Head to Head: Tory Almost Doubles Ford

Head to Head: Tory Almost Doubles Ford

Toronto, June 27^th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1040 Toronto voters, amongst those decided and leaning, in a head’s up race between only John Tory and Doug Ford, Tory almost doubles his as-yet undeclared competitor with support of two-thirds (66%) of voters, while Doug Ford secures only a third (34%).

Respondents most likely to support Tory include those aged 35-44 (71%) or 65+ (70%), earning $80,000-$100,000 (75%), with a post-graduate degree (77%), living in the former city of Toronto (79%) or East York (80%), and supporting the provincial Liberal party (77%).

Respondents most likely to support Doug Ford include those aged 34 and younger (36%), 45-54 (37%), 55-64 (38%), earning $40,000-$60,000 (48%), the least educated (45%) and those with some college/university (46%), living in Etobicoke (42%) or York (44%), and supporting the provincial PCs (45%)

Add Mike Layton to the ballot, Tory still wins

In a three-way race between Tory, Ford, and councillor Mike Layton, little-changes. John Tory would still command a majority of votes (51%), while Ford dips below a third (30%). In this three-candidate scenario Mike Layton would secure fewer than two-fifths of the vote (18%).

Respondents most likely to support Tory over Ford and Layton include those aged 65+ (61%), females (58%), earning $80,000-$100,000 (61%), with a post-graduate degree (58%), living in East York (60%), and supporting the provincial Liberals (60%).

Respondents most likely to support Ford over Layton and Tory include those aged 45-54 (33%) or 55-64 (35%), the least wealthy (41%) or earning $40,000-$60,000 (41%), with some college/university (44%), living in Etobicoke, and supporting the provincial PCs (44%).

Respondents most likely to support Layton over Tory and Ford include those aged 34 and younger (23%) or 45-54 (20%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (26%), living in the Former City of Toronto (28%), with a college/university degree 20%) or post-graduate degree (21%), and supporting the provincial NDP (38%) or Green Party (40%).

Tory Approval Up

The majority (54%) of voters once again approve of John Tory’s performance as mayor, overall. Just over a quarter (27%) disapprove, while 2 in 10 say they don’t know. John Tory’s net favourable score (approve – disapprove) is a strong +27.

Tory’s approval is up 4 points (50%: May 28) and his disapproval has likewise dropped 4 points (31%: May 28^th). 

“When factoring out all other potential challengers and pitting Doug Ford head to head against John Tory, it isn’t a contest, with the Mayor almost doubling up the support of his presumed main rival,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Even adding another candidate doesn’t shake Tory’s support, and he still wins handily.”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.