Chow and Tory tie with Ford out
TORONTO June 24th, 2014 - In a random
sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 890 Toronto voters
one week before he returns from rehab, Mayor Rob Ford's approval rating has
improved slightly since the historic low noted the last time we polled, and he
is more competitive in most mayoral election match ups.
Tory with best approval rating, Ford
with poorest
Approval ratings are a
function of awareness, among other things. Among the vast majority of voters
aware of him (92%), John Tory has the approval of 6-in-10 (61%, down from 68%
on June 6), while the equally large proportion who know of Olivia Chow (96%)
give her a similar approval score (57%, down from 64%). Two thirds are aware of
David Soknacki (63%) and just less than half approve (47%, down from 54%). Most
voters know of Karen Stintz (80%), but just 4-in-10 giver her their approval
(41%, down from 46%). Rob Ford has the approval of just one third (32%), up
slightly since two weeks ago (28%).
Chow leads key races, ties Tory when
Ford is out
In the
all-important five way match between all major contenders, Olivia Chow leads
with a third (34%), compared to just
more than a quarter for Rob Ford (27%) and just a quarter for Tory (24%). David
Soknacki (6%) and Karen Stintz (3%) do not really contend.
In a
four way race in which Rob Ford doesn't run, John Tory and Olivia Chow are
essentially tied among voters, with more than a third each (34% and 36%,
respectively). Once again, Soknacki (8%) and Stintz (5%) don't contend. In this
race, close to a fifth have no opinion (12%), and this is because Rob Ford
supporters don't know who to vote for (35%).
In a
three way race between the major
contenders, Olivia Chow takes close to 4-in-10 votes (37%), to 3-in-10 for Tory
(29%) and Ford (28%).
In a
straight up contest between John Tory
and Olivia Chow, the two are closely matched (40% and 42%, respectively), and
close to a fifth have no opinion (17%), including close to 4-in-10 Ford
supporters (38%).
Ford Nation springs back
In the question which
determines membership in Ford Nation ("Will you vote for Rob Ford in the
municipal election in October or not?" with no other candidates named),
the proportion saying yes has rebounded from less than a quarter two weeks ago
(22%) to close to 3-in-10 now (29%). At this point, Ford Nation is
characterized by the youngest (38%), the less wealthy (less than $20K - 38%,
$20K to $40K - 42%), in Scarborough (42%) but not downtown (15%), among the
least educated (50%) and provincial PC voters (49%).
Fewer call for mayor to resign
Just less than 6-in-10 voters
now want the mayor to resign (58%), down slightly from two thirds last time we
polled (June 6 - 63%). Wanting him to resign is common to younger groups (35 to
44 - 63%), the wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 75%), in the downtown (73%), the
best educated (post grad - 67%), past Liberal or NDP voters provincially (69%
and 67%, respectively) and Olivia Chow supporters municipally (90%).
Chow leads on most attributes except
budget
When asked which candidate
would handle the city's budget best, it is a relatively even field, led by Rob
Ford (31%), followed by Tory (27%) and Chow (26%). Chow is seen to have the
best vision for the city (35%), compared to Tory and Ford (26% each). Tory
(32%) and Chow (34%) are relatively closely tied for being able to get council
to work together, but Ford is not (14%), nor are Soknacki and Stintz (5% and
4%, respectively). Chow is seen to be the winner for leaving the city in better
shape (32%) over Ford (26%) and Tory (25%).
Chow, Ford matched for having best transit
plan
More than a quarter see Rob
Ford (26%) or Olivia Chow (27%) as having the best transit plan for the city,
while Tory trails slightly (23%). Soknacki (5%) and Stintz (7%) don't contend
on this measure, and one tenth have no opinion (11%). Interestingly, very few
believe none of the candidates has a transit plan that will work (1%).
Building transit most important task for
mayor
Close to one third of voters
say building transit is the most important issue in the election (31%),
followed by keeping taxes low (20%) and protecting existing city services
(10%). Other priorities selected by fewer than a tenth include rebuilding
Toronto's image (9%), eliminating waste and caring for the most vulnerable (8%
each) and cleaning up city hall (7%). Among Ford supporters, taxes are clearly
the biggest concern (40%), followed by eliminating waste (17%) and cleaning up
city hall (14%). Among Chow supporters, the biggest priority is building
transit (35%), followed by protecting city services (19%), rebuilding Toronto's
image (15%) and caring for the most vulnerable (12%). Tory supporters are
especially concerned with building transit (40%), followed by keeping taxes low
(14%), eliminating waste (11%) and rebuilding Toronto's image (10%).
Majority disapprove of Soknacki parking
ban downtown
More than one half of Toronto
voters disapprove David Soknacki's proposal to ban on-street parking on major
streets in the downtown core (58%). One third approve of the plan (31%) and one
tenth have no opinion (11%). Approval is highest among the least wealthy (39%),
the wealthiest (37%), transit users (36%), those who disapprove of Mayor Ford
(37%) and past NDP provincial voters (47%).
"With his return now
imminent, interest in the mayor is beginning to grow, and with it, as usually
happens, his approval. We'll see if this is a temporary phenomenon, or a
sustained surge which will carry him back into the campaign he left so abruptly,"
said Forum Research President, Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
